Prediction on BEST temperature?

05 Mar

The Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature (BEST) study is an attempt at creating a new temperature reconstruction as free from bias as possible. I don’t know when they will release their initial findings, but on their website they say the following:

The Berkeley Earth Suface Temperature team hopes to have initial findings available in early 2011.

I don’t know what ‘early 2011’ means, but seeing as it is now March, the findings could come any day.

I’m curious what those in the climate blogosphere believe the results will be from the study. There has already been one prediction, from Maurizio Morabito on his blog:

ps my predictions on the BEST results:

* According to the Berkeley group, the Earth’s surface temperature will have risen (on average) slightly less than what indicated by NASA, NOAA and the Met Office
* Differences will be on the edge of statistical significance, leaving a lot open to subjective interpretation
* Several attempts will be made by climate change conformists and True Believers to smear the work of BEST, and to prevent them from publishing their data
* After publication, organised groups of people will try to cloud the issue to the point of leaving the public unsure about what exactly was found by BEST
* New questions will be raised regarding UHI, however the next IPCC assessment’s first draft will be singularly forgetful of any peer-reviewed paper on the topic
* We will all be left with a slightly-warming world, the only other certitude being that all mitigation efforts will be among the stupidest ideas that ever spung to human mind.

This isn’t so much a prediction of the temperature as it is a prediction of the reaction to the study. If the results do show a decrease from other data sets, I wouldn’t be surprised to see his predictions come true.

I haven’t heard any other specific predictions, but a look at a WUWT post which polled commenters on how much they felt different variables impacted global temperatures. On average, they believed that data bias (UHI and ‘adjustments’) contributed 0.3c to the temperature record. Since the record shows approx 0.8c of warming, if the BEST project can eliminate data bias entirely it should show approx 0.5c increase, according to WUWT commenters.

I have no idea what the BEST project’s results will be, but guessing doesn’t hurt. I’ll say the record will show a 0.62c increase, ignoring error bars and whatnot. Any other guesses? I would do a Lucia-style betting post, but I don’t have any Quatloos to give…



Posted by on March 5, 2011 in Uncategorized


2 responses to “Prediction on BEST temperature?

  1. Greg

    March 7, 2011 at 11:18 am

    I’m guessing they (BEST) will identify and attempt to quantify UHI, among other things. According to their site they will be looking at a much larger set of data (thermometers, etc.) than has been previously used. Depending on how many of those are not airport measurements the UHI may or may not be significant.

    Mr. Watts is apparently lending them his data on the surface stations project, which I’m sure they’ll find very interesting.

    Also, Dr. Muller, the guy in charge, is on record as saying that “hide the decline” is bad science and the people behind it are now part of a select group whose papers he won’t read any more. The same people are also behind the graph showing current temps to be higher than the 30s/40s. That’s why he’s starting the BEST project, as I understand it.

    Apparently the Warm Side is already slamming the project, so your point #3 is already coming true. This gives me much greater confidence that BEST will be good science and not supportive of CAGW.

    I’ll agree with your .5C number, not that my agreeing means anything. I think it’s 100% unlikely that they’ll show a hockey stick or similar temp spikes. I’m definitely looking forward to the results.


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