The Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature (BEST) study is an attempt at creating a new temperature reconstruction as free from bias as possible. I don’t know when they will release their initial findings, but on their website they say the following:
The Berkeley Earth Suface Temperature team hopes to have initial findings available in early 2011.
I don’t know what ‘early 2011’ means, but seeing as it is now March, the findings could come any day.
I’m curious what those in the climate blogosphere believe the results will be from the study. There has already been one prediction, from Maurizio Morabito on his blog:
ps my predictions on the BEST results:
* According to the Berkeley group, the Earth’s surface temperature will have risen (on average) slightly less than what indicated by NASA, NOAA and the Met Office
* Differences will be on the edge of statistical significance, leaving a lot open to subjective interpretation
* Several attempts will be made by climate change conformists and True Believers to smear the work of BEST, and to prevent them from publishing their data
* After publication, organised groups of people will try to cloud the issue to the point of leaving the public unsure about what exactly was found by BEST
* New questions will be raised regarding UHI, however the next IPCC assessment’s first draft will be singularly forgetful of any peer-reviewed paper on the topic
* We will all be left with a slightly-warming world, the only other certitude being that all mitigation efforts will be among the stupidest ideas that ever spung to human mind.
This isn’t so much a prediction of the temperature as it is a prediction of the reaction to the study. If the results do show a decrease from other data sets, I wouldn’t be surprised to see his predictions come true.
I haven’t heard any other specific predictions, but a look at a WUWT post which polled commenters on how much they felt different variables impacted global temperatures. On average, they believed that data bias (UHI and ‘adjustments’) contributed 0.3c to the temperature record. Since the record shows approx 0.8c of warming, if the BEST project can eliminate data bias entirely it should show approx 0.5c increase, according to WUWT commenters.
I have no idea what the BEST project’s results will be, but guessing doesn’t hurt. I’ll say the record will show a 0.62c increase, ignoring error bars and whatnot. Any other guesses? I would do a Lucia-style betting post, but I don’t have any Quatloos to give…